POISSON, (SIMÉON-DENIS). - COINING THE PHRASE "LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS"

Recherches sur la probabilité des jugements, principalement en matière criminelle. (+) Note sur la loi des grands nombres. (+) Note sur le calcul des probabilités. (+) Formules relatives aux probabilités qui dépendent de très grands nombres. (3 papers).

(Paris, Bachelier), 1835-36. 4to. No wrappers. In: "Comptes Rendus Hebdomadaires des Séances de L'Academie des Sciences", Tome 1, Séance du Lundi 14 Décembre 1835 and tome 2, Séance Lundi 11 Avril 1836 + Séance Lundi 27 Juin 1836 + Séance du Lundi 18 Avril 1836. + Pp. (467-) 498, (355-) 386, (387-) 402 a. pp. (601-) 630. (4 entire issues offered. Poisson's papers: pp. 473-495 (1835), pp. 377-380, pp. 395-400 and pp. 603-13. (1836). Clean and fine.

First appearance of 3 importent paper in probability theory, serving as a preamble to Poissons's famous work published two years later, and with nearly the same title "Recherches sur la probabilité des jugements en matiere criminelle et en matiere civile" (1837). The paper offered introduces THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS (Loi universelle des Grandes nombres, pp. 478-79), a key concept in probability theory. Poisson states that all events of a moral as well as of a physical nature are subject to this universal law. His definition (in English translation) on p. 478 reads "Things of every kind obey a universal law that we may call the law of large numbers. Its essence is that if we observe a very large number of events of the same nature, which depend on constant causes and on causes that vary irregularly, sometimes in another, 1.e., not progressively in any determined sense, then almost constant proportions will be found among numbers" (p. 478 in the first memoir).

Order-nr.: 49883